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Dashboard

The Dashboard shows the prediction results and predicted reliability growth, and lets you compare predicted values against test and field failure data.

Dashboard Tabs

The five Dashboard tabs

Tab
What it shows
Predictions
Predicted size, defect, failure rate, reliability and availability averages for the release cycle.
Predicted Growth in Field
Predicted values over the release cycle once in operation.
Predicted Growth in Test
Predicted values prior to deployment.
Predicted versus Actual
Import testing or operational failure data and compare actual/trending reliability to the prediction.
Sensitivity
Illustrates the sensitivity of the survey questions.
Predictions

What each Predictions button does

Button
What it does
Refresh all results
Reruns the machine learning model. Rerun it any time you change an input.
Size estimates
Computes the predicted software size, plus upper and lower bounds, from the Required Inputs.
Defect estimates
Shows predicted defect density from the machine learning model, for testing and post-deployment, plus its percentile group (3% world-class to 97% distressed). Operational and testing defects are predicted by multiplying defect density by the size prediction; upper and lower bounds multiply the upper/lower size and density estimates together.
Failure rate estimates
Failure rate and its bounds are predicted as an average over the release cycle — e.g. a 6-month cycle averages over those 6 months. Critical failure rate is based on the estimated percentage of defects predicted to be critical, per the Required Inputs; “critical” is user-definable, with a global default of a defect that affects availability and has no workaround.
Reliability & availability estimates
Provided with upper and lower bounds. Critical failure rate and mission time drive the reliability prediction; critical failure rate and average restore time drive the availability prediction.
Predicted Growth — Field & Test

Reading the growth buttons

Button
What it does
Predicted operational (test) metrics
A table of the growth of every reliability metric.
Remaining faults & remaining critical faults
Reliability growth for predicted defects in operation, between two time periods, with nominal, upper and lower cases. Graphs can be saved; bounds follow the relative error on size estimates entered in Required Inputs.
MTTF & MTTCF growth
Reliability growth for predicted MTTF and MTTCF in operation or test, with nominal, upper and lower cases.
Failure rate & critical failure rate growth
Reliability growth for predicted failure rate and critical failure rate in operation.
Availability growth
Growth for predicted unavailability in operation.
Reliability growth
Growth for the predicted probability of failure (reliability) in operation.
Export
Exports the reliability growth table.
Predicted Versus Actual

Comparing predictions to real failure data

Import actual test failure data

Used once the software is in a testable state, to compare the machine learning model’s predicted values against actual and trended values from test failure data. The import file template must be used. Tools such as C-SFRAT can trend the actual failure data. The importestimates_template.xlsx provides the required import template. Imported data must come from a test activity, not field use — Requs AI Predict predicts both testing and operational failure rates, and this function compares data against the predicted testing failure rates. The output is an exported spreadsheet plus a predicted-versus-actual graph.

Field
Data type
Required?
Date
Date format
Optional
Usage hours
Float
Required
Actual total faults
Integer
Required
Actual critical faults
Integer
Optional
Estimated total faults
Float
Optional
Estimated critical faults
Float
Optional
Estimated MTTF
Float
Optional
Estimated MTTCF
Float
Optional

Import actual operational failure data

Works exactly like importing test failure data, but for failure data found in operation. When you click this button, predicted operational failure rates are trended against the actual/estimated operational failure rates.

Trending the raw test data yourself The Estimation module trends your day-by-day defect and usage-hour data directly against classic Exponential and Logarithmic reliability growth models, and can forecast MTBF forward — a useful complement to this predicted-versus-actual comparison during system-level testing.
Sensitivity

Finding what’s over- or under-done

Basic sensitivity

Shows the areas — dials on the main page, or tabs on the Survey page — that are either overdone or underdone.

Advanced sensitivity (separately purchased)

A line-by-line view of the most sensitive questions answered negatively. Select a development practice to see the change in defect density — the practice is now set to affirmative in the survey; unclick it to revert. All responses highlighted in yellow have been changed to affirmative. Click a factor and the predicted defect density updates.

The table initially lists factors answered negatively in the Survey tab, and sorts them by 1) minimizing defect density, 2) minimizing development cost, 3) minimizing startup development time — the time it takes a software engineer to integrate the practice, including training and culture change.

Scale
Range
Cost
1 (trivial) to 4 (substantial)
Startup calendar time
1 (trivial) to 4 (substantial) — some practices are inexpensive but slow to adopt due to resistance and culture change
Relative impact
1 to 4, with 4 most sensitive to defect density
Relative impact is a global average Relative impact is assessed from a global average across the machine learning database, but it can and will differ for different programs. An organization with strong design and test practices that adopts short cycle times and regular reviews will see a different outcome than one that skips design and test and lacks development process.

Interactive analysis (separately purchased)

Vary defect density, effective size, corrective action hours available in operation and per cycle, cycle time in months, and test hours per cycle. A “cycle” is the time between external releases — with agile development, there may be 3–4 sprints per program increment released, and the time between increments is the cycle time. The initial analysis shows predicted escaped defects over months, contrasted with the interactive escaped-defects view. A third graph shows the interactive analysis of all defects — an estimate of where over the Rayleigh curve the software is likely to be deployed (farther right is preferred). Some sliders affect defect volume; some affect defect spacing. The pie chart shows predicted defects found-in-test-and-fixed, found-in-test-and-not-fixed, found-in-operation-and-fixed, and found-in-operation-and-not-fixed. The per-fault corrective action figure in the top right is the typical time to 1) isolate, 2) repair, 3) check out the repair.

Overkill analysis (separately purchased)

The opposite of Advanced Sensitivity — shows questions answered affirmatively that have the least effect on defect density, considering cost and startup time.

Prediction Formulas

Every formula behind these results

§1

Size predictions

Detailed source-lines-of-code estimates, or people-hours.

§2

Defect density predictions

Predicted by the machine learning model from your survey assessment.

§3

Defect predictions

Defects = Normalized effective size × Predicted defect density.

§4

Defect profile predictions

When defects will be detected for the first time.

§5

Failure rate & MTTF predictions

From the defect profile, duty cycle and installed sites.

§6

Availability predictions

From MTTCF and the restore time.

§7

Reliability predictions

Probability of failure or success over a specific mission time.